Abbey Cerek, Senior Director at Rakuten Advertising, analyzes the growing challenge of proving incrementality in an era of fragmented data. Privacy regulations and the rise of AI-driven commerce paths complicate measurement. Consequently, the industry struggles to distinguish between marketing that creates new demand and marketing that merely captures existing demand.
Cerek argues that the inability to prove incrementality often stems from structural issues. While affiliate networks provide precise click and conversion data within their own ecosystems, they typically lack visibility into broader market trends. If marketers view network data in isolation, they risk reaching misleading conclusions.
Contextualizing Performance Beyond Network Data
Relying solely on internal affiliate network data can create a distorted view of performance. For instance, a common trend shows sales volume peaking in November and December before dropping significantly in January. Without external context, a marketer might interpret this drop as a channel failure or a reason to slash budgets.
However, Rakuten’s "The Full Picture" report demonstrates that adding a third-party consumer market panel changes the narrative. While the broader market saw a 2.2x lift during the peak holiday season, the partner channel achieved a 3.2x lift. By comparing these two data sets, marketers can see that the channel outperformed the market rather than simply riding a seasonal wave.
A network only sees the activity it processes; it can tell you what happened in your program, but it cannot tell you what the market was doing at the same time.
Measuring Lifetime Customer Value via CRM
The final piece of the measurement puzzle involves integrating a brand’s own CRM and media data. According to the Rakuten analysis, customers acquired during high-volume peak periods were worth 88% more than the average new-to-file buyer.
This multi-layered approach allows advertisers to move beyond "what happened" to understanding "what it means" and "what to do next." Without the CRM layer, a brand might miss the fact that high-cost acquisition periods drive the most valuable long-term customers.